Selection of Test Variable for Minimal Time Detection of Basin Response to Natural or Induced Changes.

摘要

Classical statistical tests have been used to assess whether an apparent change in basin response is the result of nature's caprice or of man's deliberate action. Often the physical information about the variable tested has been neglected. As a result the tests used are not optimal. Detection tests which use both the physical and statistical information can be designed and they will have a superior power to the standard tests. The test variable to be used is a linear combination of several physical and random variables with weight factors determined by a minimization procedure. The minimization is restricted by several equality constraints of a physical origin. When applied to the Colorado River Basin Pilot Project area the power of the test,expressed in years needed for detection,is increased by a factor of two. (Author)