Optimum Seismic Protection for New Building Construction in Eastern Metropolitan Areas. Seismic Risk Analysis of Simple Series Systems

摘要

A method is presented for the evaluation of the seismic risk at a site of an engineering project. A particular consideration is the geographical spread of the site, rather than the concentration of the system at one point. A site is assumed to be distributed geographically in a linear manner with a known random distribution of strength. It can then be assumed to be a series of 'short' links. Each link has a resistance which is a known random variable and is independent of every other link. Four plots are detailed comparing various results: probability of failure of a one-site system, two-site system, and four-site system; probability of failure of a one-site system versus the location of the site; probability of failure of a one-site system versus increasing resistance; and probability of failure of a two-site system. The computer program employed is included in this report.