On Searching for Events of Limited Duration

摘要

An observer wishes to detect as many as possible of a set of events. The events arise at several discrete points according to independent Poisson processes, and the lifetimes of individual occurrences are independent and identically distributed random variables. The specific problem is: given that the observer can only 'visit' one point per unit time, in what sequence should he make his 'visits' so as to maximize the steady-state fraction of events he detects. Some results about the optimal search policy are obtained, and the best policy is found precisely in some circumstances. The research focuses on three areas: (1) evaluation criteria; (2) analytical tools; and (3) impacts upon traditional methods, standards, roles, and operating procedures. The work reported here is associated primarily with the second category in which a set of analytical and simulation models are developed.