Simulating the Housing Allowance Program in Green Bay and South Bend: A Comparison of the Urban Institute Housing Model and the Supply Experiment

摘要

Predictions are made about the 1980 outcomes of the Housing Allowance Supply Experiment (HASE) in Green Bay (Brown County, Wis.,) and South Bend (St. Joseph County, Ind.). They are based on Urban Institute's Housing Market Model, data about the two sites prior to 1975, and 1980 projections of population, income, and housing costs. Predictions are compared to the first 2 years of program results and found to be consistent with the market effects predicted in previous simulations of housing allowance programs for the 1960 - 1970 decade. Considerably more than half the eligible population participates in the program, and the average participant substantially increases his housing consumption. In Green Bay, where rapid population growth is predicted to have already forced the price of housing close to the price needed to elicit additional supply, the model finds little price increase from the program; however, in South Bend, which is losing population and appears to have a decaying stock, the simulations find participants must pay sharply higher prices to obtain housing improvements. Neither enrollments nor demands for housing improvement show signs of rising sharply in either site; hence, there is unlikely to be much pressure on the existing supply of housing by 1980. One implication from the comparisons is that the program participation and housing consumption responses of the model need strengthening. The true strength of the model cannot be evaluated precisely until accurate input data for 1980 can be given the model and the analysis of the experimental data is completed. The appendix discusses model inputs for the 1970 - 1980 projections. Tabular and graphic data and a bibliography are provided.