Study to Identify the Existence of Any Housing Credit Market Differentials Between Rural and Other Areas and to Identify Causes of Such Differentials. Volume 7. Appendices to Statistical Analysis of Outstanding Mortgage Credit Differences Between Urban and Rural Areas

摘要

This volume contains technical information pertinent to the econometric analysis presented in its companion volume, Vol. 6 of the series, 'A Study To Identify the Existence of Any Housing Credit Differentials Between Rural and Other Areas . . .' This report focuses on housing and mortgage demand and supply models which are designed to identify the causes of observed housing and housing credit differentials between nonrural and rural areas. To provide a point of reference, an aggregate time series model of housing and mortgage markets which focuses on construction activity is described, in order to present the overall structure of housing and mortgage markets. Next, a cross section approach, more pertinent to studying regional differences in housing and mortgage markets, is introduced by modifying the aggregate time series model. However, such an approach is insufficient to identify the underlying causes of urban - rural differences. Therefore, the microeconomic foundations of such a model are explored, including individual (borrower and lender) behavior and interactions. One model depicts the behavior of individual lending offices; this model can be used to identify the cause of systematic differences in behavior of urban and rural lenders. Another model shows the behavior of households in order to address issues highlighted in background material provided by HUD, such as different prices and income patterns, different demographic characteristics, and different preferences. All suggested potential sources of urban and rural housing and mortgage demand differences have been incorporated in the models presented. Also, systematic urban - rural differences in permanent income, income variability, demographic characteristics, costs of living and housing costs, and the subsequent implications of such differences for housing credit allocation between rural and nonrural areas can be determined. The demand models are also structured in a way that makes simultaneous estimation of individual mortgage credit demand functions and mortgage credit supply functions possible. This approach facilitates the separation of demand phenomena and supply phenomena as potential causes of urban - rural differences in the composition and value of outstanding mortgage credit and housing. A final section of the appendix presents general statistics and covers the Copley Household Survey, the 1970 census of housing data, and the Annual Housing Survey. Numerous tables and figures, footnotes, and related references are provided. (Author abstract modified).