Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-2022. Presentation to the National Economists Club

摘要

Each January, CBO prepares baseline budget projections spanning the next 10 years. Those projections are not a forecast of future events; rather, they are intended to provide a benchmark against which potential policy changes can be measured. Therefore, as specified in law, those projections generally incorporate the assumption that current laws are implemented. But substantial changes to tax and spending policies are slated to take effect within the next year under current law. So CBO has also prepared projections under an alternative fiscal scenario, in which some current or recent policies are assumed to continue in effect, even though, by law, they are scheduled to change. The decisions made by lawmakers as they confront those policy choices will have a significant impact on budget outcomes in the coming years.