Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Program Impacts Within Metropolitan Areas

摘要

This paper describes and illustrates a method for determining the impact of public or private investments on different subareas of a metropolitan area and on different industries within the total area. The method can be applied to such issues as determining the extent to which central city expenditures produce an economic stimulus to the suburbs. The method entails the use of a nonsurvey input - output approach for estimating spatially and industrially disaggregated multipliers to measure separately the central city and suburban effects of a project. The methodology represents an adaptation of the Regional Industrial Multiplier System (RIMS) developed at the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce. The measurement of city and suburb effects is intended to improve the impact analyses of urban programs. Application of the methodology to the Baltimore Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) shows the total effect of a change in final demand on intermediate transactions and earnings. The multipliers range from 1.595 for forestry and fisheries to 3.716 for credit agencies. This range indicates that, for a given amount of final demand change, total metropolitan area effects will vary and that total effects depend on which industries are initially affected. Findings also show that the residents of the core city of Baltimore experience only a small amount of the total SMSA effects. The size of the city - suburb commuting pattern and the economic size of the city relative to the suburb both help explain this result. Future research will focus on detailing the reasons for the spillover effect involving the suburbs and on determining if the size of the spillover is unique to Baltimore. Tables, notes, and 17 references are provided. (Author abstract modified).