Transferable Housing Planning Technology. Working Paper: Description of a Methodology for Expressing Growth Options for the City of Houston, Texas

摘要

This paper is one of a series of papers describing the efforts of the city of Houston, Tex., to develop methodologies for expressing and evaluating growth options for the city. The report provides an overview to the HUD contract supporting the effort; a review of the methodology being used to express growth options; and a review of the use of the growth option methodology to express two growth options to the city through the year 2000. The objectives are evaluated in terms of their impact on various sectors of the housing market and on the capital and operating costs of the city. The methodology for expressing growth options uses the following modules: population and household, locational preference, census tract share, unit forecast, and tract level household and population. A review of growth planning calculations presents 62 interrelated calculation steps. They describe the purpose, general approach to performance, required assumptions, and any special features of its computerization. Test results of the Housing Calculation Tool are given. Results indicated that the tool required a large number of user - supplied assumptions and a sound initial data base. Data provided by the tool were generally more extensive and more defensible than those derived from any other source. The forecast results of the inner city growth option are appended, as are statistical data and pertinent 1980 Census data. Additional tabular data and maps are provided. (Author abstract modified).