Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program. Technical rept. no. 38. Western Gulf of Alaska Petroleum Development Scenarios:Economic and Demographic Impacts.

摘要

The study is part of the Bureau of Land Management's Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program. The objective of this program is to assess the potential impacts of proposed lease sales in the federal offshore areas of Alaska. The study of the impacts of ICS development in the WEstern Gulf of Alaska is one of a series of studies describing lease sale impacts. Already completed is a study of the impact of the joint federal-state sale in the Beaufort Sea (ISER, 1978) and the federal sale in the Northern Gulf (ISER, 1979);future studies will be conducted for lease sales in the Lower Cook Inlet and the Bering Sea-Norton Sound. The studies program is concerned with many aspects of OCS impact on many different levels. The major objective of this study is to examine only a portion of OCS impact,the statewide and regional economic and demographic impacts. In order to assess the impact of the proposed Western Gulf OCS development,the study accomplishes two additional objectives. First,an understanding of the existing state and regional economies is developed. The important economic relationships need to be understood in order to say anything about future growth and the effect of OCS development on the economy. Secondly,the study develops a process for economic impact assessment. Rapid growth associated with OCS development will affect most economic variables; a much smaller number is important,and information on these dimensions of impact will describe the effect of rapid growth on the state and regional economies. The process of economic impact assessment consists of the selection of the major variables to analyze and the appropriate questions to ask about each of these.