Major Mineral Supply Problems: A Study Prepared by Resources for the Future for the Nonfuel Minerals Policy Review

摘要

The United States faces only one major mineral supply problem: an undue vulnerability, for certain minerals, to contingencies that might either seriously disrupt supplies or cause sharp price rises. Among the seven minerals studied, the conclusion applies most unqualifiedly to chromium, in the form of ferrochromium. For cobalt, aluminum, copper, and lead, it is unclear whether problems are 'major' or 'minor,' either because of limited likelihood of contingency occurence or because of thelimited degree of consequent damage. Given available alternatives, problems connected with manganese and zinc seem more distinctly minor. Minor, as well as major, problems deserve continuing policy attention. From consumption and supply potential in pricipal countries, the study derived world demand, supply, and price projections to the year 2000, for each of the commodity forms, through refined metal, in which each of the seven minerals is importantly consumed. Prior projections of world minerals consumption have been generally too high, owing to over-estimation of long-term economic growth. Supply tightness seems to be in prospect for ferromanganese and ferrochromium, refractory chromite, and aluminum in its three principal forms of ore, alumina, and refined metal.