Optimal Flow Control of Air Traffic

摘要

Flow control procedures for air traffic are initiated during periods of unusually high demand or low capacity. This report considers centralized flow conrol as now practiced. Aspects of flow control which are addressed include forecasting of demand and capacity, forecasting of congestion, and assignment of delays and landing and departure priorities. In particular, the demand-capacity-buffer relationship is explored, with emphasis on improvement of forecasts and evaluation of their accuracy. It is shown that buffer size, which represents the excess number of aircraft in the airspace due to delays, can be estimated recursively and then forecasted on the basis of arrival forecasts and the number of landings recorded. Regression analysis is used to describe and predict flow rates of arrivals and departures. Some preliminary studies using ADR and ARTS-III data are presented. A study of the equitability of the distribution of flow control delay treats delay and equity measures, and impact groups and impact variables are identified.