Urban Household in the 1980s: A Demographic and Economic Perspective

摘要

This report focuses on demographic changes projected during the 1980's, projected growth rates of the national economy and its effect on household income, and the implications of these changes on urban housing demand, public services, and on urban economic development. The rate of new household formation will decrease in the second half of the 1980's. The projected decrease in household size should increase the demand for smaller, higher density housing units typically located in older cities. Small household size combined with decreasing rates of household formation should result in a lower level of demand for city services. However, the aging population of central cities will increase the demand for social services. The national population should increase by about 15 percent between 1975 and 1990. Nonmetropolitan areas will grow much faster than metropolitan areas. The movement to low density areas implies that central cities will be competing in the 1980's with both suburbs and nonmetropolitan areas for new industry and jobs. Projected low growth rates in the economy will probably reduce the level of migration somewhat during the 1980's and early 1990's. The projected increase in the number of families headed by females suggest that poverty rates may become higher. Job growth in the 1980's will be substantially lower than in the previous decade. The most rapid growth rates are projected for service workers, clerical workers, and sales workers. As a result of these trends, from 2 million to 2.4 new housing units will be needed annually between 1980 and 1985. The demand should increase for small, higher density, relatively inexpensive units. Housing demand should remain concentrated in the South and West. Project demands for day care, public schooling, police services, and other services are presented. Data tables are included in the text and appendix.