Sunspot Cycle Simulation Using a Narrowband Gaussian Process

摘要

The square of a narrowband Gaussian process is used to simulate sunspot cycles at computer speeds. The method is appealing because: (1) the model is extremely simple yet its physical basis, a simple resonance, is a widely occurring natural phenomenon, and (2) the model recreates practically all of the features of the observed sunspot record. In particular, secular cycles and recurring extensive minima are characteristic of narrowband Gaussian processes. Additionally, the model lends itself to limited prediction of sunspot cycles.