Modeling Phosphorus Loading and Lake Response under Uncertainty: A Manual and Compilation of Export Coefficients

摘要

A procedure is proposed that may be used to quantify the relationship between land use and lake trophic quality. The methodology is based on an input-output phosphorus lake model. When the methodology is employed to predict the impact of projected land use changes, it is necessary to use phosphorus export coefficients extrapolated from other points in time and/or space. These coefficients represent the mass loading of phosphorus to a surface water body per year per unit of source (e.g., per hectare of forested land). A substantial portion of the document is devoted to a presentation of carefully screened nutrient export coefficients. These values are intended for inclusion in the modeling/uncertainty analysis methodology. To that end, criteria are described that will aid the analyst in the selection of appropriate export coefficients and in the interpretation of the results of an application of the methodology.