Methods for Analyzing Fuel Supply Limitations on Passenger Travel

摘要

The report describes the development and testing of methodologies for analyzing the travel impacts of fuel supply limitations. Quantitative approaches are used to analyze work and nonwork travel. The work trip analysis combines incremental logit analysis with the traveler classification aggregation approach. The nonwork trip analysis is based on linear VMT and transit trip models. Input data and computational requirements are modest. The quantitative forecasting system was applied to several fuel shortfall scenarios and produced reasonable results. Qualitative analysis was used to refine the assessment of work and nonwork travel responses, to analyze long-run impacts such as residential location and auto ownership changes, and to evaluate the distribution of impacts across income or geographic groups.