Satisfaction of the Automotive Fleet Fuel Demand and Its Impact on the Oil Refining Industry

摘要

Because virtually all transportation fuels are based on petroleum, it is essential to include petroleum refining in any assessment of potential changes in the transportation system. A number of changes in the automotive fleet have been proposed to improve efficiency and reduce pollutant emissions. Some of these changes would have an impact on the petroleum refining industry. A mathematical model of the U.S. petroleum refining industry was developed to provide a technologically sound basis for the assessment of such impacts. Case studies performed and included in this report are the following: A Potential Shift from Gasoline to Diesel Engines--In a 1995 conservation scenario, automotive diesel-to-gasoline ratios were studied over a range of 0.17/1 to 0.8/1. A minimun refining cost was reached at a ratio of 0.3/1, with a saving of about 2.2 cents per gallon of gasoline plus diesel compared with the cost for the 0.17/1 case. Refining energy consumption reaches a minimun at the 0.5/1 ratio, but it is only 0.08 percentage points below the base of 6.25 percent. The Potential Requirement of Sulfur Removal from Gasoline and Diesel Fuel--In the same scenario, gasoline hydrodesulfurization (HDS) to an average sulfur content of 100 ppm costs about 2 cents per gallon, and diesel HDS to 200 ppm costs about 3 cents per gallon. This work was performed during the 1975-1977 time period. Therefore, it predates and does not consider the possible implications of the current synfuels program.