Revisions to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model: The Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I)

摘要

The report documents revisions made to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model to produce the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I). Equations are reestimated for the total desired stock of autos and for desired shares by size class, including the foreign size classes. The automobile data was adjusted to exclude passenger vans, so equations for total new registrations, scrappage, and new registrations by size class are estimated. New data also allowed reestimated WEFA and EPA miles per gallon equations in cross-section and time series. Vehicle miles traveled are estimated as the sum of urban and rural vehicle miles per car, which are the results of new behavioral equations. Consistent procedures are found for aggregation of vehicle miles and MPGs to produce average fuel economy and gasoline consumption. Automobile price equations and equations for related price indices are reestimated, as are equations for linkages to the WEFA Annual Model. Finally, a forecast through 1987 is presented and discussed.