U.S. Farm Numbers, Sizes, and Related Structural Dimensions: Projections to Year 2000

摘要

The number of U.S. farms is projected to continue to decline through the end of the century--from 2.9 million in 1974 to 1.8 million in 2000. The proportions of small and large farms will change as well, with large farms increasing and dominating agricultural production. Farm production, farmland, and farm wealth will become more concentrated; farm operators will rent more of their farmland and will produce more of their commodities under contractual arrangements with food processors. The projections are based on four analytical methods: trend extrapolation, negative exponential functions, Markov process, and age cohort analysis.