The Consequences of Accelerated Mortality Declines for Future Population Growth and Economic Progress in Developing Countries: A Preliminary Exploration

摘要

Must reduced mortality be achieved at the expense of future generations' economic well-being. This study of the demographic and economic impact of efforts to accelerate mortality declines in developing countries concludes that these efforts lead to a real but manageable reduction in future economic growth. Using conventional cohort-companion methods, the authors project population growth consequences for the year 2100 of increases in life expectancy 1.5 and 2 times greater than those predicted by the United Nations for the period 1975-2100. These more rapid mortality declines would lead to a global population 2-4% larger than currently predicted for the year 2000 and 6-8% larger than expected in 2100.