Water Resource System Reliability Under Drought Conditions: The Seattle Water Supply System as a Case Study

摘要

Several potential ways of increasing the resistance of water supply systems drought conditions through improved management/planning were examined, using the Cedar and Tolt River systems of western Washington. The use of drought indices to define/forecast hydrologic drought was assessed, particularly for the widely-used Palmer Drought Index; this index generally provided less accurate forecasts of future runoff deficiencies than hydrologic forecasting methods in current use. Simulation modeling appeared to be a more useful drought management tool. The model study illustrates the advantages of a demand-deficit approach over conventional safe yield analysis.