Peak Hour System Analysis on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Forecasting Traffic Volumes: Box-Jenkins Theory and Application

摘要

Heavy delays due to high traffic volumes are experienced in both east and west bound directions at bottlenecks along route US 50 between Annapolis and Ocean City during peak periods during the summer weekends. The road network is such that the high volumes experienced during these peak periods could be diverted along alternate routes thus reducing the excessive delays currently experienced. This study applies the Box-Jenkins method of time series analysis and model development (1) to volume series collected at recording stations along route US 50 during the summer of 1980. The development of this model indicates that the Box-Jenkins method of analysis can be successfully applied to the development of traffic volume prediction models to aid in the solution of the Eastern Shore problem and it also implies that this method can be applied to forecasting traffic volume time series in general.