Response Surface Method in Geotechnical/Structural Analysis--Phase I

摘要

This study investigates the feasibility of applying the response surface method to statistical analysis of geotechnical/structural systems. In the response surface approach, an approximating function is fit to a long-running computer code based on a limited number of code calculations. The approximating function, called the response surface, is then used to replace the code in subsequent repetitive computations required in a statistical analysis. The procedure of the response surface development and feasibility of the method are shown using a sample problem in slop stability which is based on data from centrifuge experiments of model soil slopes and involves five random soil parameters. It is shown that a response surface can be constructed based on as few as four code calculations and that the response surface is computationally extremely efficient compared to the code calculation. Most importantly, the efficiency is gained with nominal loss in accuracy; the failure statistics of the sample slope based on the response surface is within three percent of the statistics based on the code. Potential applications of this research include probabilistic analysis of dynamic, complex, nonlinear soil/structure systems such as slope stability, liquefaction, and nuclear reactor safety.