Migration and Industrial Location: Their Interaction in Small Regional Economies

摘要

The research presented in this report yields new insights into certain aspects of the rural-to-urban migration turnaround. If the high rates of recent employment growth in the South and West had been accommodated without sharply rising labor force participation rates in these regions, rates of in-migration and population growth in the South and West would have had to be much higher than they were. Because southern and western participation rates are now comparable to those in the rest of the country, southern and western employment growth during the 1980s, even if it proceeds at the same or lower rates than during the 1970s, will be accompanied by more interregional migration. An important force underlying the turnaround is the cumulative causation between migration and employment growth. In general, the migrant attractive power of another job is considerably stronger in the South and West than the remainder of the country, in part because of the availability of amenities in southern and western areas. Migrants from northern areas set in motion a cumulative decrease in employment that exceeds their own jobs and that is particularly strong in the manufacturing and service sectors.