Seasonal Risk-Based Reservoir Operating Rules

摘要

Research was carried out to develop a capability to predict short-term (seasonal) effects of various reservoir operation policy on future failure (spill or deficit) probabilities, based on application of the concept of the Anticipated Decision Influence Period (ADIP). The ADIP is defined as the time from the present to the end of the current failure (spill or deficit) period. Three methods of identifying the ADIP and two types of risk-based rule schedules were tested. Two reservoirs were analyzed: one with almost insignificant overyear storage; one with considerable overyear storage.