Past and Future Trends in Automobile Sales

摘要

The report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I) and its associates data bases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the automobile market. Part A analyzes the historical trends, generally covering the 1958-1976 period, with four sections devoted to the data on new registrations, vehicles in operation and vehicle miles travelled, physical characteristics and fuel economy, and prices and costs. The discussion focuses on trends by manufacturer and by size class. Part B presents long-range projections of future trends in sales, prices, stock of vehicles, fuel consumption, etc., based upon economic, energy, demographic, and policy assumptions. Also presented is an alternative simulation that seeks to evaluate the likely broad impacts resulting from extended MPG standards beyond 1985.