Motor Vehicle Demand Models: Assessment of the State of the Art and Directions for Future Research

摘要

The report provides an assessment of the current state of motor vehicle demand modeling. It includes a detailed evaluation of one leading large-scale econometric vehicle demand model, which is tested for both logical consistency and forecasting accuracy. Results of the model evaluation suggest improvements in the specification of existing vehicle demand models and low-cost strategies for further model development. In assessing existing work, this report also provides useful new insights into the structure of U.S. motor vehicle demand.