A Comparison of Two Methods for Forecasting Thunderstorms at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona

摘要

A summary is presented of two studies for forecasting the occurrence of air-mass thunderstorms for the period 1 June through 30 September. The first is based on twelve years of upper-air data from Tucson and is referred to as the RAOB study. The second is based on three years of trajectory model data and is called the Trajectory study. At the present time the RAOB method does provide the forecaster an aid to forecasting thunderstorm activity at Luke Air Force Base, and is especially helpful to new forecasters assigned to the base.