Tropical Cyclone Strike and Wind Probability Applications

摘要

Public officials are frequently required to make decisions relative to tropical cyclone preparedness actions. For such decisions to be defensible, officials usually adhere to an official government forecast, yet some allowance for forecast error must be made. Complex relationships between errors in tropical cyclone forecast track and in the forecast wind distribution, complicated by lack of user familiarity, makes this a particularly difficult problem. This paper introduces the concept of strike and wind probability as a means of quantifying (by computer) the tropical cyclone threat, thereby allowing simultaneously for all types of errors.