Egyptian Food Security: An Optimization Approach

摘要

Although many aspects of the food and agricultural policy in Egypt are done in the name of national food security, the concept itself is vague and the goals of the various Ministries are inconsistent with each other and work at cross purposes, all in the name of national food security. The study presents an empirical 'food security' model in which domestic food requirements must be met while incurring the smallest possible foreign exchange expenditure and the smallest possible agricultural balance of trade. Quadratic programming was used to simulate cropping patterns by region for 19 internationally traded commodities under several alternative scenarios. Results, while preliminary, suggest that the drive toward self-sufficiency in staple food grains at the expense of nonprofitable cash crops is justified when risk is taken into consideration.