Analysis of Extant Survey and Census Data: Problems and Solutions

摘要

An assessment, herein presented, was made of extant Jordanian survey and census data to explain why fertility is so high when use of contraception is also high. According to the authors, this apparent paradox exists because contraception is but one of 11 variables which determine total fertility. Mediating toward high fertility in Jordan are a high proportion of people married, infrequent marital dissolution, high fecundability, short lactational amenorrhea, low intrauterine mortality, and high reproductive efficiency. However, even when these other factors are taken into account, fertility in Jordan is still approximately 10% higher than expected. This discrepancy is likely due to overreporting of recent period of fertility and of current contraceptive usage. The authors recommend that the next fertility survey be a refined version of the 1976 Jordan Fertility Survey rather than the contraceptive prevalence survey favored by A.I.D.