Mineral Demand Modeling: An Assessment of the Usefulness of Mathematical Models in Nonfuel Mineral Demand Forecasting

摘要

The report reviews the major computer-based modeling approaches in nonfuel mineral demand forecasting, highlights the advantages and disadvantages of different models, and identifies some of the tradeoffs that a government agency might have to consider in designing and implementing a system for predicting mineral demand and consumption. The report provides a general understanding of mineral demand models for those within and outside government who are interested in greater institutional capability in forecasting or who seek to become more discriminating in their use of the output of mineral demand models. Among the tradeoffs discussed are generalized vs. commodity-specific models, purchased vs. in-house, short and medium vs. long term, international vs. domestic, single agency vs. cooperative agency approaches.