Technological Innovation in the Copper Industry. Volume 1. Methodology

摘要

This report presents a study initiated by the Bureau of Mines to develop and apply a methodology to quantitatively assess the probability and potential benefits of technological innovation over the next 25 years to solve copper industry problems in the United States. The objectives of the study were to (1) develop a methodology to obtain the opinions of mineral experts about future events, their likelihood of occurrence, and conditional on occurrence, when and to what extent they are likely to occur; (2) identify, select, and describe potential technological innovations that would have a significant impact on copper production; (3) implement the methodology and obtain the opinions of mineral experts regarding selected copper technologies; and (4) analyze the expected future benefits of successful technological innovations in the copper industry. Volume I describes the methodology procedures used to survey the opinions of experts, analyze the findings, and prepare the report. This volume was designed to serve as a handbook for those interested in repeating the study, modifying it (for example, to study additional technologies), or conducting similar studies relating to other minerals.