Real-Time Forecasting of River Flows and Stochastic Optimal Control of Multireservoir Systems

摘要

An examination was made of the interaction between stochastic forecasting and optimization in the real-time operation of reservoir systems in the report. The problem of optimizing the expected value of a single-objective function representing the performance of a reservoir system with stochastic inflows is discussed. General approaches for its solution are reviewed and their limitations are discussed. In general, the problems of statistical forecasting and optimization are coupled and cannot be separated without loss of optimality. Discussion and examples are presented to provide some insight into the interaction between uncertainty in forecasting and optimization and the effect of this interaction on the selection of an appropriate method of solution.