Toward an Econometric Model to Analyze Impacts of Water Availability on the Oregon Economy

摘要

A macro-econometric model was developed relating the performance of Oregon agriculture, the state's most water-dependent industry, to the performance of Oregon's economy. Linkages between Oregon's agricultural sector, the national economy, and private non-farm sectors of the Oregon economy were emphasized, particularly the latter two elements. The model, with 102 equations, has separate blocks for gross product, average wages and prices, employment, and income. Simulation techniques were used to validate the model and test the performance. The model provides a macro-econometric explanation of the performance of annual levels of output, prices, employment, and income over two decades (1960 to 1979). Forecasts from this model can be produced utilizing forecasts from national macromodels.