Risk Analysis for Natural Hazards Damage Mitigation

摘要

Results are presented of a wind engineering investigation in Taiwan. Historical extreme wind data are provided and distinctions are made between Type I and Type II extreme value distributions. A mixed distribution model is proposed to describe the behavior of Taiwan's annual extreme winds and a simulation approach is developed. The Type I and II cumulative distributive functions of the largest values are shown to be applicable in analyzing the extreme winds and the Poisson process is found to be adequate in describing the occurrences of tropical cyclones for eleven of the thirteen stations studied as well as for Taiwan as a region. The need for developing methods to predict typhoons at specific locations in Taiwan is identified. Wind experiments are discussed and local wind velocity data and dynamic characteristics of the experimental tower are included.