Irrigated Agriculture Decision Strategies for Variable Weather Conditions

摘要

A comprehensive irrigated agricultural decision making model has been developed for variable weather conditions in the Southern High Plains, which overlies the Ogallala Aquifer. The analysis includes a probabilistic precipitation prediction model, water/crop yield production functions, and an economic decision strategy model. The model is in good agreement with most physically measured parameters. Compared with physically based irrigation models, this model increases net returns per acre from $7 to $25 for corn with flood irrigation and a crop price of $3.57 per bushel. For sprinkler systems, it increases corn net returns from $2 to $106 per acre. For wheat at $4.68/bushel, it increases net returns from $1 to $15 for flood irrigation and $20 to $38 for sprinkler irrigation. The model's flexibility enables the farmer to calculate maximum profits under a wide variety of economic and physical conditions.