Global Energy Futures and CO2-Induced Climate Change. Chapters 1-8

摘要

Energy options relevant to lessening the buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere in future years, thereby ameliorating the predicted consequent climatological effects, are discussed. The question of energy modeling for an uncertain future is addressed, and methods and long-term energy scenarios are examined, with a focus on highly aggregated global energy-economic models. A set of scenarios is developed, incorporating a range of future energy costs, resource availabilities (including cutoffs and moratoria), and end-use efficiencies. New energy options which are substantially electric are considered, including nuclear, wind, and solar photovoltaic power. The status of electric system integration is explored and the incorporation of energy storage and non-dispatchable sources is analyzed. The question of how to discount the future is raised, and it is pointed out that discounting is useful for comparing options but not for judging present cost/benefit of far future events. Because of the global character of energy CO2 consequences, it is noted that any responses to the problems must be international in scope.