Adjusting Highway Travel Forecasts for the Effects of Fuel Shortages and Price Rises

摘要

Travel forecasts developed in the early 1970's do not usually consider reductions in fuel supply, increased fuel prices, or improved car efficiency. Such forecasts should be adjusted to account for recent trends in these areas. Based on a review of observed trends and previous studies of the past two energy emergencies, a set of procedures to adjust travel forecasts to reflect changes, either historical or future, in fuel supply, fuel price, and vehicle fleet fuel efficiency were developed. These procedures can be applied singly or in combinations based on a set of guidelines devised for utilizing the adjustment factors. In addition, consumer reactions to these energy events were also examined.