Urban Travel Trends: Historical Observations and Future Forecasts

摘要

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of telecommunications substitutes for travel, urban land use patterns, rescheduling of work activities, and their impacts on urban travel patterns. As a result of this research effort and what has occurred over the past decade, the report also provides some forecasts and hypotheses on future urban travel trends. Some of the anticipated trends show that trips for family and personal business will increase along with work trips. Total trips are expected to increase, while trips for educational, social and recreational purposes will decline. Socio-economic and demographic conditions, such as increasing household formations, growth in the labor force and aging of the population were seen to have greater influence on total travel trends than the effects of particular technological developments. Recent growth in transit ridership will continue, however, at a declining rate of growth which may be the result of expected continued growth in carpooling and vanpooling.