Sensitivity of RAM (Rural Alaska Model) Projections to Key Assumptions. Social and Economic Studies Program Technical Report Number 113

摘要

The study examines the sensitivity of the RAM model's projections to a variety of input assumptions. The study results provide an indication of the kinds of uncertainties associated with the model's projections. Assumptions about exogenous employment, support and government employment multipliers, and trends in levels of local government employment directly affect projected employments the level of projected population. The sensitivity tests indicated that unless a high degree of annual turnover in population is assumed, the RAM model tends to 'over adjust' population in response the changes in employment demand. The projected impacts of OCS sales tend to be considerably less sensitive to model assumptions than base case projects.