Gulf of Alaska Economic and Demographic Systems Analysis. Social and Economic Studies Program Technical Report Number 98

摘要

The report examines possible impacts of the Gulf of Alaska lease sale, scheduled for October 1984, upon the population and economics of five communities in southcentral Alaska: Homer, Kenai, Kodiak, Seward, and Yakutat. For each community the authors provide descriptions of current population and employment. The Rural Alaska Model (RAM) was then used to project a number of economic and demographic variables for these five communities, with and without development of the proposed lease sale area. In the base case, relatively low rates of growth are projected in resident population for Kenai and Kodiak (less than 1.2 percent annually over the period 1981-2010). The authors project relatively minor impacts from development in the lease sale area upon population and employment in Homer, Kenai, Kodiak, and Seward (generally less than 10 percent at maximum). In contrast, the authors project more substantial relative impacts upon population and employment in Yakutat (up to 46 percent and 82 percent, respectively).