Economic Perspectives on Regional Energy Development Issues

摘要

The U.S. Office of Technology Assessment is conducting a study of potential technological responses to a large and permanent oil price rise due to a disruption in oil imports of three to four million barrels per day. The major objectives of the study are to ascertain how much oil can be displaced and how quickly in such a crisis, and to estimate what ameliorating effects the oil displacement might have on the economic impacts of the oil price rise. One of the issues related to this assessment is the relationship between regional and national impacts of various oil displacement options. Clearly, regions of the country will be affected differently by the selection of oil displacement technologies just as they are differentially impacted by oil price increases. For example, adoption of enhanced oil recovery clearly would have different regional (and probably national) impacts from adoption of grain alcohol production. The major objective of this 'issue analysis' is to delineate and clarify some of the major issues, tradeoffs, and value judgements associated with the analysis of regional impacts of oil displacement options.