Long Range Forecast of Power Demands on the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company System. Volume 1

摘要

The report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak and electric power demands for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BG&E) through the year 2003. The report describes the methodology, the results of the econometric estimations and associated summary statistics, the forecast assumptions and the calculated forecasts of energy usage and peak demand. Separate models were estimated for summer and winter residential electricity usage in both Baltimore City and the non-City portion of the BG&E service area. Equations were also estimated for commercial energy usage, industrial usage, streetlighting, and for losses plus Company use. Non-econometric techniques were used to estimate future energy use by Bethlehem Steel Corporation's Sparrows Point plant in Baltimore County, Conrail and the Baltimore Mass Transit Administration under-ground rail system. Models of peak demand for summer and winter were also estimated.