Poisson Threat Model: An Analytic Approach to Threat/Survivability Evaluation

摘要

A general model for the evaluation of the threat to and/or the survivability of a target subjected to a random sequence of discrete threat events is presented. The approach is based on the modeling of the threat as events driven by a Poisson process. The approach gives expected (or average) values analytically without the need for Monte-Carlo type simulations. Instantaneous threat profiles can be tailored to match operational perceptions to any degree of detail. Specific applications of the technique are exemplified.