Comparison of Estimated Probable Maximum Flood Peaks with Historic Floods

摘要

Guidelines for safety modifications to Federal dams require that most high-hazard dams be able to safely pass a PMF (probable maximum flood). In the study several of the largest 'observed' rainfall events in the conterminous United States are compared with the PMF peak floods estimated for the same sites using Bureau of Reclamation methodology. The study concludes that some PMF peaks are significantly close to the historic flood events (Nine of the rainfloods analyzed represent at least 80 percent of the estimated PMF peaks.) and, therefore, the methods used to calculate the PMF are effective and yield reasonable peaks.