Evaluation of Short-Term Long-Range Transport Models. Volume 1. Analysis Procedures and Results

摘要

Eight short-term long-range transport models (MESOPUFF, MESOPLUME, MSPUFF, MESOPUFF II, MTDDIS, ARRPA, RADM, and RTM-II) have been evaluated with field data from two data bases involving tracer releases. The primary quantitative means of evaluating model performance was the use of the American Meteorological Society statistics. Supplementary measures included the use of isopleth plots of ground-level concentrations, scatter plots, cumulative frequency distributions and frequency histograms of residuals. General features of the model performance included: (a) spatial offset of predicted and observed patterns, (b) a time difference between the arrival of the predicted and observed plumes at a particular receptor, and (c) an angular offset of as much as 20-45 degrees between predicted and observed plumes.