Macroeconomic Policies and Adjustment in Yugoslavia: Some Counterfactual Simulations

摘要

Yugoslavia was hit very hard by a severe balance of payments crisis at the end of the 1970s that has overshadowed the economic scene since. The report addresses the causes of the crisis, whether it could have been averted through the adoption of alternative policies in the 1970s, and what can be said about the adjustment policies pursued since 1980 in the light of the lessons of the 1970s. These questions are addressed in the paper with the help of some counterfactual policy simulations for the period 1973-79, using a macroeconomic model developed for the Yugoslav economy. (Copyright (c) The World Bank, Washington, July 1987.)