Changes in Domestic Demand for Primary Metals Due to Economic Growth, Technology Change and Change in Composition of Final Demand

摘要

Metals consumption and production in the United States did not keep pace with economic growth from 1963 to 1983. For example, steel consumption per million dollars of real GNP decreased from 98 tons to 50 tons during this period, and nonferrous metals consumption decreased from $6250 per million dollars of GNP in 1963 to $4570 in 1983 (measured in 1975 constant dollars). The study, based on an interindustry analysis, identifies and quantifies the contribution of three sources responsible for change in U.S. metals demand and, in turn, production, between 1963 and 1982: Technological change; economic growth; and the composition of final demand. The results of the analysis show that technology was the most significant factor causing the production of ferrous metals, and production growth rate of nonferrous metals, to decline during the study period.