Extension of the Baseline Analysis: A Context for Evaluating Implications of GRI's (Gas Research Institute's) Enhanced Services R and D Programs. Final Report

摘要

The analysis of the market environment implied by the 1985 Baseline Projection focuses on changes in seasonal patterns of gas demand and the geographic location of gas supplies. Three significant trends are noted: a continuing shift in the sectoral mix of end-use gas consumption away from industrial and power generation uses, a move away from historical gas production centers towards the Rocky Mountain areas, and an increase in the delivered cost of gas with wellhead gas cost accounting for a larger share of the total. Intersection demand shifts imply increased service obligations during the winter heating season, suggesting a need for greater emphasis on wintertime supply management practices such as storage facilities and supplemental fuels. Gas supply trends suggest substantially different gas flow patterns in the interstate pipeline system, implying a need for major pipeline construction projects to transport gas supplies from the Rocky Mountain area. Important factors in projecting future transmission costs for the pipeline system could be the changes in gas flow patterns and the inferred construction requirements.