Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, April 2013.

摘要

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a comprehensive, mid-term energy forecasting and policy analysis tool used by the EIA. The NEMS projects energy supply, demand, prices, and environmental emissions, by region, given assumptions about the state of the economy, international markets, and energy policies. The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) links the NEMS to the rest of the economy by providing projections of economic driver variables for use by the supply, demand, and conversion modules of the NEMS. The MAMs baseline economic projection contains the initial economic assumptions used in the NEMS to help determine energy demand and supply. The MAM can also provide the NEMS with alternative economic assumptions representing a range of uncertainty about economic growth. Different assumptions regarding the path of world oil prices or of the penetration of new technologies can also be modeled in the MAM. The resulting economic impacts of such assumptions are inputs to the remaining supply and demand modules of the NEMS. Outside of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) setting, the MAM represents a system of linked modules capable of assessing the potential impacts on the economy of changes in energy events or of policy proposals as specified by a non-EIA requestor. These economic impacts result from assumptions about energy events resulting from policy proposals built into the NEMS. The linked modules of the NEMS then iterate to a solution.